Holiday Volume Surge 2025: How Brands Should Prepare

The U.S. holiday shopping season has always pushed supply chains to their limits — but 2025 is shaping up to be one of the busiest yet. Early retail forecasts indicate record-breaking e-commerce demand, driven by increased consumer spending and new sales events set to begin as early as October. For brands selling online, this means unprecedented shipping volumes, tighter carrier capacity, and rising costs if you’re not prepared.

At Advanced Warehouse Inc. (AWI), we work with brands year-round to plan for peak season successfully. Here’s what your team should focus on to avoid delays, protect margins, and keep customers happy during the surge.

1. Understand What’s Driving the 2025 Holiday Spike

Consumer behavior is shifting fast:

• Longer shopping season — Shoppers are starting earlier, especially with new October sales events.

• Bigger online baskets — High inflation in past years taught consumers to chase deals; many are bundling purchases for cost savings.

• Returns volume growth — More online orders also mean more post-holiday returns, adding strain to carriers and warehouses.

This combination means carriers like UPS, FedEx, USPS, and regional players will run at near or full capacity. Without planning, shippers risk service delays, unplanned surcharges, and unhappy customers.

2. Forecast Demand Early & Accurately

Data-driven forecasting is your first defense against chaos.

• Use last year’s sales patterns but adjust for current market conditions and promotions.

• Talk to carriers and 3PL partners about volume expectations well before November to secure space and pricing.

• Plan for SKU performance shifts — if you’re launching new products or promotions, factor those into expected volume.

AWI helps clients model expected peaks across multiple channels and align inventory levels across fulfillment centers before volume hits.

3. Diversify Fulfillment & Delivery Options

One of the biggest mistakes we see is over-reliance on a single carrier or fulfillment site.

• Multi-node fulfillment: Position inventory closer to key customer regions to shorten delivery times and reduce risk if one hub is overloaded.

• Regional carriers: Consider adding carriers beyond the big three. Many regional players offer faster final-mile delivery with fewer surcharges during crunch periods.

• Hybrid shipping strategies: Use a mix of ground and express services to optimize cost and delivery speed.

AWI’s nationwide network of warehouse partners helps brands distribute inventory strategically so packages flow smoothly even under pressure.

4. Strengthen Packaging & Label Compliance

Holiday surges mean carriers have less tolerance for mistakes. Non-compliant packaging can trigger delays and unexpected fees.

• Right-size packaging to avoid dimensional weight surcharges.

• Check carrier labeling standards — especially for hazardous goods, lithium batteries, or fragile products.

• Pre-test new packaging with carriers to ensure smooth scanning and sorting.

5. Plan for Returns & Reverse Logistics

Holiday returns spike every January and February — don’t wait until after the rush to prepare.

• Create clear return instructions for customers.

• Pre-position return labels or QR-based return options to reduce friction.

• Use reverse logistics partners who can process returns quickly and get inventory back into circulation or resale channels.

AWI provides end-to-end reverse logistics solutions to protect margin and reduce customer dissatisfaction post-holiday.

6. Monitor Carrier Rate Changes & Surcharges

Major carriers have already announced 2025 peak surcharges and rate adjustments. Expect:

• Higher residential delivery fees for ground and express.

• Oversize and additional handling surcharges for large or irregular packages.

• Seasonal fuel surcharges tied to volume spikes and fuel costs.

AWI stays ahead of pricing changes to help brands control cost per shipment and adjust pricing strategies before the season begins.

Bottom Line

The 2025 holiday season promises opportunity — but also unprecedented stress on U.S. logistics networks. Brands that forecast early, diversify fulfillment, ensure compliance, and plan for returns will win on both speed and cost this year.

At Advanced Warehouse Inc. (AWI), we help e-commerce brands prepare for peak with flexible fulfillment, smart carrier selection, and proactive cost control. If you’re looking to scale confidently this holiday season, let’s talk about how to strengthen your logistics strategy now.